Q3 2022

Times of tumult, such as we’ve seen this year, warrant reflection. The pandemic and the government’s shifting focus to issues at home overshadowed the saber-rattling seen in 2019. Part of this shift included a flood of fiscal and monetary stimulus, which provided support to keep economies from succumbing to a microscopic agent, but eventually led asset prices to balloon and the economy to overheat.

Q2 2022

Anticipation of the rate spike helped push the stock market into bear market territory in June. Despite a few upticks, the market as of late has consistently trended down. We cannot say with certainty that the Fed’s actions inevitably imply recession, but history points to chances being more likely than not, while recessions inevitably lead to earnings reductions.

Q1 2022

It’s spring 2022, after two years and 500 million COVID-19 cases, a vaccine miracle permitted most countries to break free of massive pestilence not seen since 1919.  The war in Ukraine highlights unpreparedness, and Europe’s systems of finance, energy, and food totter.  Fewer than half the world’s population was alive in 1981, when inflation was last at today’s increasing levels. 

Q4 2021

Whether it was inflation, supply chain disruptions, the removal of government stimulus, the prospect of central bank monetary policies — whatever spooked investors leading to the September sell-off evaporated at the start of October, and once again, markets rose. Investors shrugged off doubt and pushed the S&P 500 to new highs in the final week of the year.

Q3 2021

Markets across the globe were muted in the third quarter, with the S&P 500 posting a modest 0.58% return and the MSCI ACWI Index falling -0.95%.  Emerging markets presented a dark spot, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index falling -8.09% during the quarter.

Q2 2021

Last quarter we posited that accelerated vaccine distribution would spur reopenings and increased economic activity. Our crystal ball need not have been polished to a high sheen to proffer these prognostications, and they have indeed come to pass.