From the Yardarm
 

2017

  • November 2017 Yardarm

    Few things in this world can be predicted with accuracy over multiyear periods and fewer still over multi-decade spans. One exception is population demographics. Based on data today, we have a good idea how populations will develop through 2050. For some countries, demographics will provide a tailwind toward possibly robust economic growth in the coming years...

     
  • What We Want and What We Get: Error Bias in Investing Cover

    As we observe events in realms such as financial markets, politics, or weather, we tend to form beliefs — be they explicit or implicit beliefs — about cause and effect, or whether the events were positive or negative, good or bad. Science has formalized this process: testing a hypothesis with empirical data. One of the tradeoffs when evaluating beliefs in light of evidence...